Syria: What role do Turkey and Germany play?

Turkey is playing a central role in the reorganisation of Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. While other external players such as Russia and Iran are losing influence, Ankara’s position is characterised by uncertainty. On the one hand, the Turkish government is pursuing the goal of creating stability in the region; on the other hand, it is confronted with potential conflicts with other powers such as Israel and the Kurdish militias. In this complex geopolitical environment, the question arises as to whether a new power balance will emerge or whether Syria will sink into prolonged chaos.

Syria is facing a huge task: The social, economic, and political reorganisation of the country is essential, but the immediate situation is precarious. The economy is in ruins, large parts of Syria have been destroyed, and a large part of the population is dependent on humanitarian aid. Added to this are the US and EU sanctions, which are making economic recovery more difficult.

Against this backdrop, diplomatic cooperation is becoming increasingly important. Germany and Turkey have a shared interest in stabilising Syria and the region, both for geopolitical and humanitarian reasons. Immediately after the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia seized power, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock first travelled to Ankara before visiting Damascus. She called for the disarmament of the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) militia and spoke out in favour of preserving Syria’s territorial integrity, while the Federal Foreign Office issued an eight-point plan for peace in Syria. The announcements from Berlin and Ankara show astonishing synchronisation in terms of content.

Berlin and Ankara must work together despite differences

Ankara and Berlin are striving for a peaceful and orderly transition of power and want to participate in the reorganisation and reconstruction of Syria. They want to stem emigration and encourage Syrian civil war refugees to return safely. Joint humanitarian aid and reconstruction projects for the reintegration of returnees would be an initial area of cooperation. Another would be reconstruction aid for the Syrian armed forces, the disarmament of militias, and the securing and destruction of chemical weapons. At the EU foreign ministers’ meeting, Germany advocated an easing of EU sanctions and announced it could work towards a complete lifting of sanctions in order to strengthen the transitional government and encourage it to take in Syrian refugees fleeing the civil war.

Berlin and Ankara should also pull together geopolitically in the region. Both states have an interest in pushing back Iranian hegemonic endeavours, particularly in Syria, and ensuring a balanced position vis-à-vis China, which has recently asserted its influence with its mediation efforts between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

A de-escalation of Israeli military operations is also essential for the stabilisation of the region. Ankara and Berlin, together with the EU, could exert influence here. Despite existing differences, for example in dealing with Hamas, there are also diplomatic overlaps here. For example, Germany and Turkey are aligned on the issue of a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians. A prolonged Israeli occupation in Syria would alienate the population and push HTS towards an anti-Israel agenda. The Federal Foreign Office has already called on Israel not to establish any settlements on Syrian territory and has reaffirmed its position that the Golan Heights belong to Syria under international law.

Turkey is pursuing dual interests in Syria: In addition to stabilising the country, it wants to combat Kurdish autonomy efforts. The latter could lead to a disagreement with Germany, which could, however, be bridged by Berlin’s mediation between Ankara and the Syrian Democratic Forces led by the YPG. Berlin is already holding talks with the YPG – in coordination with Ankara. During a visit by Syrian ruler Al-Sharaa to Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan offered closer cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State terrorist militia and Kurdish militias in north-east Syria.

A political stabilisation of Syria through a reconciliation of interests between Ankara and the YPG in Syria would also open up opportunities for a settlement of Turkey’s armed conflict with the PKK. The advantages for Turkey would be obvious: renewed economic ties with Syria, dynamic growth in both countries, and the prospect of deeper regional economic integration. For Germany, there would be opportunities for a development-orientated return policy and an improved image in the Arab-Muslim world.