© Hazem Turkia / Anadolu Agency
© Hazem Turkia / Anadolu Agency
Institute:
Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)
Project members:
Dr Burcu Özçelik, Senior Middle East Fellow, RUSI
Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security, RUSI
Madison Agresti, International Security Programme Manager, RUSI
Project Duration: Oct 2024 – Sep 2025
Contact:
Burcu Özçelik, email: burcuo@rusi.org
Madison Agresti, email: madisona@rusi.org
Over the last two decades, Turkey has extended its footprint across large swathes of territory in the Middle East and North Africa. Ankara has variously played the roles of mediator, spoiler, and sponsor in regional crises and armed conflicts, notably aspiring for recognition as a peace-broker in Israel-Palestine, Sudan, and Libya. Turkey has described its approach as "a third voice" advocating for "peaceful resolutions" in the region. In reality, Turkey’s track record and the impact of its overtures on the ground have been mixed.
Since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and the subsequent Israeli military operations inside Gaza, the Middle East has been confronted with unprecedented upheaval. An examination of Turkey’s regional peacebuilding interventions will facilitate a better understanding of the dynamics at play in the emergent regional security order. Rather than a grand strategy, Turkish foreign policy draws upon a toolbox that prioritises regionalism, de-escalation, and expedient conflict resolution tactics that risk reinforcing an illiberal Middle East, with implications for regional stability and the international liberal peacebuilding order that gained ascendency from the 1990s.
A central question is whether Turkey’s methods of engagement in these crises is promoting new, or entrenching established, authoritarian actors, processes, and/or outcomes at the local and regional levels. Do Turkey’s interventions in the Palestinian conflict, Syria and Iraq (via policies affecting Kurdish communities and actors) consciously or inadvertently, enable non-democratic forms of local rule? Such an examination is important because the unintended and illiberal impact of external interventions at this critical moment in the Middle East may hinder the effective delivery of humanitarian aid, put civilians, civil society and UN personnel at risk, empower armed non-state actors and deter inclusive and lasting political settlements. The proposed project will make policy recommendations for European and British policymakers seeking to collaborate with Turkey in the aftermath of the war in Gaza, as well as seek a political settlement in Syria and promote stability in Iraq.